Application of extreme value statistics for maximum wind speed forecast

Shahidul Haque Joarder, University of Texas at El Paso

Abstract

Different extreme value statistics are applied to forecast the maximum wind speed for Barstow, California, where no wind speed data is available, using the maximum wind speed data for twelve stations around Barstow. The data for these twelve stations are analysed using Asymptotic Type I Distribution. The forecast obtained for these twelve stations are used to forecast the maximum wind speed for Barstow, using the Scalar, Linear and Gravity model and have been presented graphically. Monte Carlo simulation technique is developed to generate maximum wind speed data for twelve stations around Barstow and with the simulated data, forecast for Barstow is made. Kalman filtering technique is used to obtain optimal forecast of maximum wind speed for short return period (i.e., 20 years) for twelve stations and forecast for Barstow is made by the Linear model. ^ Asymptotic Type I Distribution is widely accepted method for forecasting maximum wind speed. Results obtained from Monte Carlo simulation agrees favorably with the results obtained from Type I Distribution. For short term forecast the Kalman filter model provided better results. ^

Subject Area

Geophysics|Statistics|Physics, Atmospheric Science

Recommended Citation

Joarder, Shahidul Haque, "Application of extreme value statistics for maximum wind speed forecast" (1988). ETD Collection for University of Texas, El Paso. AAIEP14151.
http://digitalcommons.utep.edu/dissertations/AAIEP14151

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