Publication Date
7-2016
Abstract
In recent papers, a new plausibility-based forecasting method was proposed. While this method has been empirically successful, one of its steps -- selecting a uniform probability distribution for the plausibility level -- is heuristic. It is therefore desirable to check whether this selection is optimal or whether a modified selection would like to a more accurate forecast. In this paper, we show that the uniform distribution does not always lead to (asymptotically) optimal estimates, and we show how to modify the uniform-distribution step so that the resulting estimates become asymptotically optimal.
Comments
Technical Report: UTEP-CS-16-50