Using ARENA simulation software to predict hospital capabilities during CBRNE events

Cesar G Ochoa, University of Texas at El Paso


In the past few years, potentially large gaps have been exposed in the health care system; these gaps show the incapacity or lack of capability to cope with disasters, especially after the recent terrorism attacks to the United States. It is very important to be prepared to deal with any event in where terrorism can use chemical and biological weapons against American citizens. At the same time, it is also vital to prepare for an influenza epidemic that could reach the United States. ^ This thesis develops ARENA discrete event simulation modeling software to predict hospital capabilities in response to patient arrival surges during a Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and/or High-yield Explosive event. This research is focused on a triage scenario outlined within the William Beaumont Army Medical Center emergency management plan. The model includes real hospital resources and parameters such as personnel, number of available beds, other hospital resources, and assigns patient processing and transit times information at all the defined triage locations. The pre-event conditions included in the simulation model allows the development of a more realistic simulation modeling effort. The results of multiple model scenarios are presented throughout this document. These may be useful for decision makers while preparing for patient arrival surges. The results also illustrate where areas of potential concerns were found, which would require further research and development. ^

Subject Area

Engineering, Industrial|Health Sciences, Health Care Management

Recommended Citation

Ochoa, Cesar G, "Using ARENA simulation software to predict hospital capabilities during CBRNE events" (2007). ETD Collection for University of Texas, El Paso. AAI1450945.